451 Suffolk Dr

Ferris, TX 75125

$339,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-310/mo
• Annual: $-3,719/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (36.5% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucy Mae Mcdonald El (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 67% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.