451 Suffolk Dr · Ferris, TX 75125

$339,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 5,998 sqft lot $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the winning Geneva plan! This thoughtfully designed plan opens with a foyer leading past two generous bedrooms flanking a bath. The hall opens up into an airy, sunlit space, showcasing a kitchen, a dining area, and a great room. A large primary suite is adjacent, boasting a walk-in closet and an attached bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower! Conveniently located near I-45, Ferris offers a short drive to economic, entertainment and cultural hubs across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area—plus local attractions, such as restaurants, shops, and year-round community events. You’ll love a charming small-town atmosphere that's only 20 miles from urban amenities in downtow

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucy Mae Mcdonald El (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 67% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,716 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-74,991
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-91,422
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75125

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,549

Max offer price $285,150

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
485 Norfolk Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,275	$1.28	21d	1	0.26mi
111 S Wood St Unit B Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$1,700	$0.77	44d	1	0.34mi
100 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,025	$1.12	5d	1	0.64mi
860 Newport Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	3.0	2082	$2,395	$1.15	2d	1	0.66mi
215 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,100	$1.24	22d	1	0.79mi
704 N Church St Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,300	$1.55	7d	1	0.80mi
309 Jennie Marie Cir Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1775	$1,999	$1.13	15d	1	0.81mi
309 Jennie Marie Cir Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1775	$1,999	$1.13	44d	1	0.81mi
308 Micah Ln Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,325	$0.90	1d	1	0.89mi
808 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,379	$1.10	24d	1	0.94mi
833 Serena Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,500	$1.37	1d	1	0.96mi
841 Serena Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,395	$1.11	1d	1	0.97mi
206 S Meadow Dr Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$8,950	$4.06	22d	1	0.98mi
206 S Meadow Dr Unit 1520042P Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2195	$12,712	$5.79	22d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,220 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,296/yr (+$441/mo · 573.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,391
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ferris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #8294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 32% Two or more races 25% Black 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.54%
• Current HPI: 243.4525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $339,900 NTREIS