The Danbury Plan

Uhland, TX 78640

$230,490F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 671 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax + insurance: −$413
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-197/mo
• Annual: $-2,367/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $69,316

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 671 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 671 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.