10659 S Black Mesa Dr

Yucca, AZ 86438

$269,500D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-603/mo
• Annual: $-7,233/yr
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.59%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $75,460

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (40.8% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#260 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.6% in Yucca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.