10659 S Black Mesa Dr · Yucca, AZ 86438

$269,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot $185/sqft · 10% below area Est $301k · 10% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brand-new Mesquite 1458 model features a two/ten-year new Home Buyer's Warranty. Featuring an open floor plan and split bedrooms, this home includes numerous upgrades such as granite countertops, an inside laundry room, a master suite walk-in closet, and a tile roof. Enjoy the convenience of front yard landscaping with an automatic watering system, along with many other desirable features. Please note that the broker is the owner/seller.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-603 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.5% in Yucca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#260 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,457 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.59%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,649
• List price: $269,500
• Delta: -10.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10643 S Black Mesa Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+1%)	4mo	$299,000	$203	88
10651 S Black Mesa Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+9%)	9mo	$302,000	$190	71
10712 S Black Mesa Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,358 (-7%)	14mo	$205,000	$151	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $106,476
• Equity at exit: $240,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $343,270
• Equity at exit: $516,961

Cash invested: $75,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86438

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,042/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,358

Max offer price $182,282

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-416	-5% $-510	+0% $-603	+5% $-696	+10% $-789
Rent	-10% $-729	-5% $-666	+0% $-603	+5% $-540	+10% $-477
Rate	-1.0pp $-467	-0.5pp $-534	base $-603	+0.5pp $-673	+1.0pp $-744

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,375
• Closing costs: $8,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,500 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,500 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,500 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,500 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,500 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,500 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,500 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,500 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,500 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,500 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,500 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,500 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,500 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,500 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,500 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    price $269,500 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This brand-new Mesquite 1458 model features a two/ten-year new Home Buyer's Warranty. Featuring an open floor plan and split bedrooms, this home includes numerous upgrades such as granite countertops, an inside laundry room, a master suite walk-in closet, and a tile roof. Enjoy the convenience of front yard landscaping with an automatic watering system, along with many other desirable features. Please note that the broker is the owner/seller.

19. 2026-04-30
    price $269,500

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This brand-new Mesquite 1458 model features a two/ten-year new Home Buyer's Warranty. Featuring an open floor plan and split bedrooms, this home includes numerous upgrades such as granite countertops, an inside laundry room, a master suite walk-in closet, and a tile roof. Enjoy the convenience of front yard landscaping with an automatic watering system, along with many other desirable features. Please note that the broker is the owner/seller.

20. 2026-04-29
    price $269,500
21. 2026-03-18
    listed $286,500 Active
22. 2025-10-24
    listed $286,500 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This brand-new Mesquite 1458 model features a two/ten-year new Home Buyer's Warranty. Featuring an open floor plan and split bedrooms, this home includes numerous upgrades such as granite countertops, an inside laundry room, a master suite walk-in closet, and a tile roof. Enjoy the convenience of front yard landscaping with an automatic watering system, along with many other desirable features. Please note that the broker is the owner/seller.

23. 2025-10-10
    listed $286,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,096
• − Property taxes: −$4,042
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$7,840
• Taxable loss: −$12,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,941
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Yucca

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #23315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 692

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 7% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.90%
• Current HPI: 283.2861
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,500 WARDEX
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,500 LHAR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $269,500 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Listed $286,500 LHAR
• 2025-10-24 Listed $286,500 WARDEX
• 2025-10-10 Listed $286,500 Zillow