44 Smith Branch Rd

Grayson, KY 41143

$89,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,109/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,133/yr
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.58%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prichard Elementary School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 635 students, 67% FRL); East Carter Middle School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 505 students, 62% FRL); East Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 729 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.