44 Smith Branch Rd · Grayson, KY 41143

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1970 2.00 ac lot $58/sqft · 31% below area Est $109k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Family home located off Hwy US 60 between Grayson and Olive Hill. Home features hardwood flooring throughout some of the main level rooms which includes a spacious size living room with wood burning fireplace, family room, kitchen w/ appliances, separate dining area, full bath, large mud/laundry room (Brand New washer/and dryer included, just purchased in April 2020). Upper levels consists of 2 bedrooms great for the kiddos. Other features include storage building, back deck for entertaining w/ built in fire pit, Vinyl siding and windows replaced in 2016. Call today to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Near grayson lake
• 2 acres
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• NEAR GRAYSON LAKE
• NEAR GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built area approximately 1,320 (building area total provided)
• Exterior features: Few trees on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prichard Elementary School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 635 students, 67% FRL); East Carter Middle School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 505 students, 62% FRL); East Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 729 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.58%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,281
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -26.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $70,372
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.62×
• Total profit: $189,916
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41143

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $370	+0% $344	+5% $319	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $301	+0% $344	+5% $388	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $367	base $344	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $89,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   price $80,000 651-char remark
7. 2026-04-22
   price $90,000 651-char remark
8. 2026-04-09
   price $99,000 651-char remark
9. 2026-03-23
   price $110,000 651-char remark
10. 2026-03-13
    listed $125,000 Active 651-char remark
11. 2021-08-09
    soldstatus $84,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Nice Family home located off Hwy US 60 between Grayson and Olive Hill. Home features hardwood flooring throughout some of the main level rooms which includes a spacious size living room with wood burning fireplace, family room, kitchen w/ appliances, separate dining area, full bath, large mud/laundry room (Brand New washer/and dryer included, just purchased in April 2020). Upper levels consists of 2 bedrooms great for the kiddos. Other features include storage building, back deck for entertaining w/ built in fire pit, Vinyl siding and windows replaced in 2016. Call today to schedule a showing.

12. 2020-01-31
    listed $84,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Nice Family home located off Hwy US 60 between Grayson and Olive Hill. Home features hardwood flooring throughout some of the main level rooms which includes a spacious size living room with wood burning fireplace, family room, kitchen w/ appliances, separate dining area, full bath, large mud/laundry room (Brand New washer/and dryer included, just purchased in April 2020). Upper levels consists of 2 bedrooms great for the kiddos. Other features include storage building, back deck for entertaining w/ built in fire pit, Vinyl siding and windows replaced in 2016. Call today to schedule a showing.

13. 2013-12-11
    soldstatus $69,000
14. 2008-10-10
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 131.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $2,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $3,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grayson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #8046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,754

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.22%
• Current HPI: 230.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+58.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $89,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $90,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $99,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $110,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-08-09 Sold (MLS) $84,900 AABOR
• 2020-01-31 Listed $84,900 AABOR
• 2013-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $331 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.