10 Thorntown Ln

Bordentown, NJ 08505

$269,900C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,879/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$640
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $219/mo
• Annual: $2,630/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#115 in NJ, #2,907 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Bordentown Regional School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #206 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $270k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Bordentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.