2372 Mash Run Rd

Prices Fork, VA 24060

$265,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Active · 266 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $881/mo
• Annual: $10,567/yr
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.24%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $440/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in VA, #1,003 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 34094% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.1% in Prices Fork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,153/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 3694% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.