53 Elm St

South Thomaston, ME 04858

$379,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Built 1860 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-979/mo
• Annual: $-11,744/yr
• Cap rate: 3.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.07%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-979 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (52.1% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (52.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 13 (town): math 77% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #84 of 112 in ME (top 75%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Knox County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $379k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.