36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 15A

Carefree, AZ 85377

$660,000D

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,461
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$448
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $-697/mo
• Annual: $-8,366/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $184,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $660k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-697 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $537k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (30.2% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($601k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $460k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $252k; list at $660k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.