36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 15A · Carefree, AZ 85377

$660,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · Condo public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2005 $448/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ground Floor Villa with two master Bedroom Suites is located in the highly sought after Village at Carefree. The Condo was scarcely lived in and has it all: breathtaking Views of the Continental Mountain Range from the covered Patio off the Living Room and Master Bedroom. Spectacular Sunset Views from the West Patio. Located along the Fairways of Desert Forest Golf Club, this Villa is within walking distance to the internationally renowned Civana Resort. Two self-contained Master Bedroom Suites offer excellent Privacy and can be locked off from one another. A desirable single Car Garage belongs to the Condo. Upgrade Finishes include stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, solid Core Alder Doors, jetted Tub in Master Bath, Ceiling Fans in Living Room and Master Bedroom, Security Glass Entrance Door and Garage Storage Racks.

Key facts

• Upgrade finishes
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR VILLA
• MASTER BEDROOM SUITES
• COVERED PATIO
• UPGRADE FINISHES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $660k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-697 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $537k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $460k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($601k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $252k; list at $660k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,399 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $151,232
• Equity at exit: $420,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $478,128
• Equity at exit: $767,115

Cash invested: $184,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,461
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,803/yr
• Insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$448
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $-697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,487

Max offer price $536,837

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $165,000
• Closing costs: $19,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	44d	1	0.03mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	44d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	44d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	44d	1	0.03mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	44d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	44d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	44d	1	0.03mi
37212 N Tranquil Trl Unit 18 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$4,000	$2.75	11d	1	0.64mi
37210 N Tranquil Trl #13 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1343	$2,860	$2.13	24d	1	0.64mi
7402 E Carefree Dr #201 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,695	$1.37	14d	1	0.83mi
1 Easy St #2 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$4,000	$2.17	4d	1	0.87mi
1 Easy St #15 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$3,650	$1.98	8d	1	0.87mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	44d	1	0.87mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	8d	1	0.87mi
7402 Hum Rd Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1737	$2,800	$1.61	22d	1	0.87mi
1725 E Staghorn Ln Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1690	$9,500	$5.62	44d	1	0.89mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	3.5–4.5	3008	$12,000	$3.99	24d	4	1.27mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $448 · $5,376/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-03
   price $660,000 849-char remark

   Show marketing remark (849 chars)

   This ground Floor Villa with two master Bedroom Suites is located in the highly sought after Village at Carefree. The Condo was scarcely lived in and has it all: breathtaking Views of the Continental Mountain Range from the covered Patio off the Living Room and Master Bedroom. Spectacular Sunset Views from the West Patio. Located along the Fairways of Desert Forest Golf Club, this Villa is within walking distance to the internationally renowned Civana Resort. Two self-contained Master Bedroom Suites offer excellent Privacy and can be locked off from one another. A desirable single Car Garage belongs to the Condo. Upgrade Finishes include stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, solid Core Alder Doors, jetted Tub in Master Bath, Ceiling Fans in Living Room and Master Bedroom, Security Glass Entrance Door and Garage Storage Racks.

2. 2026-01-26
   listed $650,000 Active 849-char remark

   Show marketing remark (849 chars)

   This ground Floor Villa with two master Bedroom Suites is located in the highly sought after Village at Carefree. The Condo was scarcely lived in and has it all: breathtaking Views of the Continental Mountain Range from the covered Patio off the Living Room and Master Bedroom. Spectacular Sunset Views from the West Patio. Located along the Fairways of Desert Forest Golf Club, this Villa is within walking distance to the internationally renowned Civana Resort. Two self-contained Master Bedroom Suites offer excellent Privacy and can be locked off from one another. A desirable single Car Garage belongs to the Condo. Upgrade Finishes include stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, solid Core Alder Doors, jetted Tub in Master Bath, Ceiling Fans in Living Room and Master Bedroom, Security Glass Entrance Door and Garage Storage Racks.

3. 2012-03-27
   soldstatus $251,600
4. 2012-03-26
   soldstatus $252,400 Closed 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

5. 2012-01-30
   status Pending 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

6. 2012-01-28
   listed $245,000 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

7. 2012-01-27
   soldstatus $252,400 Closed 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

8. 2011-11-03
   status Pending 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

9. 2011-10-31
   listed $245,000 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

10. 2011-10-30
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

11. 2011-10-29
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

12. 2011-10-29
    soldstatus $252,400 Closed 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

13. 2011-10-29
    soldstatus $252,400 Closed 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

14. 2011-10-13
    price $245,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

15. 2011-05-11
    listed $338,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This is a beautiful, upgraded unit that backs to the golf course area. Great VIEWS from back patio. It has been well maintained, and there is now bank financing available in the development. Development is close to downtown Carefree for dining and shopping, good rental also. The pool and spa area are beautiful. COMES FULLY FURNISHED, sharp. **THIS PROPERTY IS NOW LISTED AS A SHORT SALE*** Short sale disclosure required.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,356 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,553/yr (+$213/mo · 141.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,970
• − Property taxes: −$1,803
• − Insurance: −$3,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,420
• − Management: −$4,420
• − HOA: −$5,376
• − Depreciation: −$19,200
• Taxable loss: −$20,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,858
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+95.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $660,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $650,000 ARMLS
• 2012-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $251,600 Public Records
• 2012-03-26 Sold (MLS) $252,400 ARMLS
• 2012-01-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-01-28 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $252,400 ARMLS
• 2011-11-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-10-31 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2011-10-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-10-29 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-10-29 Sold (MLS) $252,400 ARMLS
• 2011-10-29 Sold (MLS) $252,400 ARMLS
• 2011-10-13 Price Changed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2011-05-11 Listed $338,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,803 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.