9599 Brayton Dr #422

Anchorage, AK 99507

$97,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$585
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $708/mo
• Annual: $8,499/yr
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.13%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 2.55%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 335 students, 80% FRL); Goldenview Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #3 of 36 statewide, top 9%, 626 students, 16% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.