9599 Brayton Dr #422 · Anchorage, AK 99507

$97,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $83k · 18% over $585/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well maintained Modular home is very comfortable for all. The owner has continued to update, including new appliances. You have FULL SUN and a corner lot in this exceptional home. The park takes great care and has room to store RV's etc. You will have 2 parking spaces and pets are allowed upon approval. Close to Shopping and the Abbott Road Businesses Hardware, Grocery, and many great Restaurants to enjoy.

Key facts

• Modular home
• Full sun
• Rv storage

Tags

• MODULAR HOME
• NEW APPLIANCES
• FULL SUN
• CORNER LOT
• RV STORAGE
• PETS ALLOWED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 335 students, 80% FRL); Goldenview Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #3 of 36 statewide, top 9%, 626 students, 16% FRL); Service High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #21 of 61 statewide, top 33%, 1,544 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $94,575 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.13%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,600
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9499 Brayton Dr #70	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	8mo	$85,000	$58	79
267 Helgelien Loop #267	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	5mo	$89,000	$59	72
9499 Brayton Dr #21	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	0mo	$92,900	$77	68
9499 Brayton Dr #292	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	16mo	$87,000	$73	55
9499 Brayton Dr #268	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-13%)	22mo	$67,500	$56	48
9499 Brayton Dr #213	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,200 (-14%)	20mo	$55,000	$46	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $38,383
• Equity at exit: $14,538

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $131,260
• Equity at exit: $8,430

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99507

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,462/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$585
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $776	-5% $742	+0% $708	+5% $675	+10% $641
Rent	-10% $512	-5% $610	+0% $708	+5% $807	+10% $905
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $733	base $708	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9905 William Jones Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1171	$2,595	$2.22	14d	10	0.24mi
2400 Sentry Dr Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	22d	1	0.62mi
1130 E 112th Ave Anchorage, AK	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	44d	1	0.90mi
2721 E 84th Ave Unit A Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,900	$2.11	24d	1	1.18mi
8124 Marsha Loop Anchorage, AK	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,700	$1.82	44d	1	1.33mi
701 E 78th Ave Unit 705 Anchorage, AK	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	14d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $585 · $7,020/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-08-13
   status Pending
2. 2024-07-02
   listed $97,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$1,462
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − HOA: −$7,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $7,831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,879
• After-tax cash flow: $6,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 37,301
• Household income: $107,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 6% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.29%
• Current HPI: 273.1227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-13 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $97,500 AKMLS