16228 Tigris Dr

Fairhope, AL 36532

$311,336D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax + insurance: −$536
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,541/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $90,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.