16228 Tigris Dr · Fairhope, AL 36532

$311,336

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Built 2025 7,800 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out the new Camilla floorplan at 16228 Tigris Drive in Fairhope, Alabama. Located in our brand-new community, Cottonwood Estates, this cozy cottage style home offers 4 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms in a one-level home with 1,504 square feet of space. This home is perfectly situated for a little more privacy and the feel of a large lot without the maintenance, as it backs up to and beside common areas. This home is as stylish as it is comfortable and flexible to suite your needs. In addition, this brand-new home includes a one-car garage. This home offers a great open concept area from the kitchen to dining and living room leading to the outdoor area. The split bedroom plan ensures just th

Key facts

• Cottonwood estates
• Ensuite bath
• Large open closet

Tags

• COTTONWOOD ESTATES
• BACKS UP TO COMMON AREAS
• OPEN CONCEPT AREA
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• ENSUITE BATH
• LARGE OPEN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $311,336 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $321,856.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $269,856 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16207 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	9mo	$312,036	$207	92
16267 Tigris Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	9mo	$269,000	$179	91
16199 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	10mo	$307,400	$204	91
16255 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	4mo	$304,461	$216	85
16221 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-6%)	7mo	$302,961	$214	84
16313 Tigris Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-6%)	7mo	$295,450	$209	81
16250 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-5%)	7mo	$301,037	$211	80
16348 Tigris Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-4%)	9mo	$290,675	$201	77
16291 Tigris Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	5mo	$289,900	$226	64
16233 Tigris Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	9mo	$276,900	$216	63
16817 Tigris Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	2mo	$295,424	$231	59
16775 Old Pierce Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,635 (+9%)	8mo	$369,250	$226	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-60,406
• Equity at exit: $47,990

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-63,433
• Equity at exit: $27,828

Cash invested: $90,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,828/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $303,275

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $-17	+0% $-128	+5% $-240	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-235	+0% $-128	+5% $-22	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-47	base $-128	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,464
• Closing costs: $9,656
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16216 Tigris Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$3,700	$2.61	15d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $311,336
3. 2026-01-18
   price $310,836
4. 2025-11-10
   price $309,836
5. 2025-10-28
   listed $308,836 Active New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,029
• − Property taxes: −$4,828
• − Insurance: −$1,609
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$9,363
• Taxable loss: −$7,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 665.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $311,336 BCAR
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $310,836 BCAR
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $309,836 BCAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $308,836 BCAR