805 Caldwell St

Lexington, TX 78947

$82,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $314/mo
• Annual: $3,767/yr
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.23%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $23,212

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #184 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington El (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Lexington Middle (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 242 students, 44% FRL); Lexington H S (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 344 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 1.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.