805 Caldwell St · Lexington, TX 78947

$82,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1960 0.37 ac lot $72/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check this property out! It has so much potential. Located in an unrestricted area. Single story home on two lots. The home needs some repair work to foundation and flooring but has hardwood floors in most areas. Two living areas in front and back of home. There is a formal dining room through French doors and an eat-in area in the kitchen. City water and sewer. So many possibilities.

Key facts

• Eat-in area
• Two lots
• Formal dining room

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TWO LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN AREA
• CITY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 1.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lexington ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #184 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington El (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Lexington Middle (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 242 students, 44% FRL); Lexington H S (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 344 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,926 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.23%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,542
• List price: $82,900
• Delta: -61.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
716 Third St	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,174 (+3%)	8mo	$200,000	$170	81
1221 Giddings St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,050 (-8%)	7mo	$125,000	$119	61
8850 N Highway 77 Hwy	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$125	60
424 Burns St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,041 (-9%)	5mo	$165,000	$159	58
213 Cherry Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	4mo	$149,000	$124	52
920 Cherry St	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	10mo	$249,900	$206	51
309 N Rockdale St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+8%)	9mo	$224,950	$183	49
228 Cherry Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+10%)	8mo	$310,000	$246	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $6,617
• Equity at exit: $12,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $31,734
• Equity at exit: $7,168

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78947

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,977/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $803

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $361	-5% $337	+0% $314	+5% $290	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $267	+0% $314	+5% $361	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $335	base $314	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8701 U.S. 77 Unit 107 Lexington, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,200	$1.07	0d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,900 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    listed $82,900 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Check this property out! It has so much potential. Located in an unrestricted area. Single story home on two lots. The home needs some repair work to foundation and flooring but has hardwood floors in most areas. Two living areas in front and back of home. There is a formal dining room through French doors and an eat-in area in the kitchen. City water and sewer. So many possibilities.

17. 2026-03-06
    historical
18. 2026-03-02
    status Active
19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-02-21
    status Active
21. 2026-02-20
    historical
22. 2025-10-02
    price $89,900
23. 2025-08-04
    listed $95,900 Active
24. 2025-08-03
    historical
25. 2025-07-31
    status Active
26. 2025-07-30
    historical
27. 2025-03-03
    price $99,000
28. 2025-01-13
    price $109,000
29. 2024-10-20
    listed $149,900 Active
30. 2024-10-18
    historical
31. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus
32. 2023-07-17
    soldstatus
33. 2023-07-17
    soldstatus
34. 1998-07-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,977 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,977 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,977
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $2,649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$636
• After-tax cash flow: $3,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827330
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,182
• Composite: 42.79/100
• National rank: #3148
• State rank: #184 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,110

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,796 people
• By 2030: 18,082 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 18,377 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 16,005 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 13,413 · -24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.5% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+46.3 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.05%
• Current HPI: 254.7718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $82,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $95,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-20 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,977 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.