815 Main Ave N

Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$110,000B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,729 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $381/mo
• Annual: $4,568/yr
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.83%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.5% in Thief River Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.