8612 Cottage Creek Dr #13

Fort Worth, TX 76123

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 2023 · Condo · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$522
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-281/mo
• Annual: $-3,367/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen countertops — Worn appearance suggests minor wear and tear.
• Minor: kitchen cabinets — Slight discoloration and wear visible on cabinet fronts.
• Minor: exterior siding — Some areas show minor wear and tear, but no major damage visible.