8612 Cottage Creek Dr #13

Fort Worth, TX 76123

$200,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,057/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$514
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-187/mo
• Annual: $-2,245/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: J A Hargrave El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 420 students, 82% FRL); Mary Harris El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 389 students, 87% FRL); North Crowley H S (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,920 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 52% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 107d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen countertops — Worn appearance suggests minor wear and tear.
• Minor: kitchen cabinets — Slight discoloration and wear visible on cabinet fronts.
• Minor: exterior siding — Some areas show minor wear and tear, but no major damage visible.