8612 Cottage Creek Dr #13 · Fort Worth, TX 76123

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Condo public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $188/sqft · 13% below area Est $253k · 13% under $250/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Income-producing investment opportunity in Fort Worth generating $2,990 per month in rental income. This tenant-occupied property offers immediate cash flow and is ideal for investors seeking a strong addition to their portfolio. The home features a functional floor plan with multiple bedrooms and bathrooms, open living areas, and a spacious kitchen. The layout provides comfortable living space and flexibility for a variety of future plans. Located with convenient access to major roadways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this property is well-positioned in a growing area of Fort Worth. Opportunity exists for future value enhancement over time. Suitable for investors or future owner-occupancy (subject to lease terms).

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Convenient access
• 8.61 acre lot

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING INVESTMENT
• TENANT OCCUPIED PROPERTY
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,438 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,304
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -13.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-57,205
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-87,344
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76123

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,163/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $170,438

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8730 Texas Risinger Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,875	$1.82	43d	1	0.03mi
8738 Texas Risinger Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$2,299	$2.24	5d	1	0.03mi
8510 Gatlinburg Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1006	$1,699	$1.69	24d	1	0.42mi
8517 Gatlinburg Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1006	$1,900	$1.89	43d	1	0.44mi
3469 Cayman Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,749	$1.28	43d	1	0.46mi
3408 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	43d	1	0.49mi
8525 Auburn Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$3,229	$2.21	1d	1	0.51mi
3124 Stonewall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,875	$1.36	5d	1	0.55mi
8505 Delta Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,500	$2.29	43d	1	0.58mi
3104 Stonewall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,783	$1.60	12d	1	0.59mi
8436 Cloverglen Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,825	$1.57	43d	1	0.62mi
8420 Cloverglen Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,950	$1.35	2d	1	0.63mi
8564 Charleston Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,875	$1.28	24d	1	0.64mi
3816 Ashley Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,060	$1.41	2d	1	0.78mi
8312 Runner Oak Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,970	$1.47	24d	1	0.84mi
8220 Runner Oak Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,970	$1.47	24d	1	0.89mi
5401 Ranch Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$2,183	$2.76	3d	12	0.90mi
2605 Bear Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,950	$1.46	5d	1	0.94mi
2531 Braford Dr Crowley, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.97mi
8213 Camellia Tree Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,900	$1.42	43d	1	0.97mi
3809 Bee Tree Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,855	$1.27	15d	1	0.97mi
8320 Hackberry Tree Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,970	$1.47	43d	1	0.97mi
3100 Fairmeadows Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,965	$1.61	24d	1	1.08mi
7612 Whirlwind Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	1079	$1,800	$1.67	43d	1	1.12mi
4304 Hulen Cir E Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,550	$1.17	13d	1	1.12mi
3741 Horizon Pl Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	1145	$1,600	$1.40	43d	1	1.13mi
4371 Hulen Cir E Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1392	$1,550	$1.11	16d	1	1.17mi
4371 Hulen Cir E Unit 4371 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1392	$1,575	$1.13	19d	1	1.17mi
3416 Forest Creek Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	1.18mi
4376 Hulen Cir E Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1392	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	1.20mi
2616 Harvest Moon Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,350	$1.64	1d	1	1.20mi
3207 Forest Creek Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,950	$1.66	43d	1	1.22mi
2805 Galemeadow Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.5	1285	$2,031	$1.58	4d	1	1.22mi
2911 Forest Creek Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,800	$1.52	12d	1	1.27mi
3801 Sycamore School Rd Fort Worth, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1130	$1,587	$1.40	43d	17	1.28mi
3801 Sycamore School Rd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,587	$1.56	5d	25	1.28mi
2609 Galemeadow Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,995	$1.47	4d	1	1.29mi
3850 Silverton Cir Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,490	$2.66	4d	21	1.38mi
3850 Silverton Cir Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,590	$2.77	43d	6	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $220,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $220,000 Pending 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 43 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 42 DOM
11. 2026-04-19
    listed $220,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Income-producing investment opportunity in Fort Worth generating $2,990 per month in rental income. This tenant-occupied property offers immediate cash flow and is ideal for investors seeking a strong addition to their portfolio. The home features a functional floor plan with multiple bedrooms and bathrooms, open living areas, and a spacious kitchen. The layout provides comfortable living space and flexibility for a variety of future plans. Located with convenient access to major roadways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this property is well-positioned in a growing area of Fort Worth. Opportunity exists for future value enhancement over time. Suitable for investors or future owner-occupancy (subject to lease terms).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,163 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,163 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,163
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, tenant-occupied condo is ready for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and interior condition, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen countertops — Worn appearance suggests minor wear and tear.
• Minor kitchen cabinets — Slight discoloration and wear visible on cabinet fronts.
• Minor exterior siding — Some areas show minor wear and tear, but no major damage visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and minor repairs to kitchen and exterior — Fresh paint and minor repairs will enhance curb appeal and interior condition.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · Worn appearance suggests minor wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinets · Slight discoloration and wear visible on cabinet fronts.	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · Some areas show minor wear and tear, but no major damage visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and minor repairs to kitchen and exterior — Fresh paint and minor repairs will enhance curb appeal and interior condition. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,957
• Household income: $102,768
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 24% Two or more races 15% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.54%
• Current HPI: 231.1377
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $220,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+93.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,163 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.