2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
975 sqft ·
Built 1971
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 46 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$737/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$113
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$155
Net cashflow
$206/mo
Annual
$2,478/yr
Cap rate
11.25%
Cash-on-cash
17.70%
DSCR
1.79
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$14,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($737 rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Holmes (rural): math 44% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #53 of 73 in FL (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bonifay K-8 School (math 58% / reading 47%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 1,192 students, 58% FRL); Holmes County High School (math 22% / reading 50%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 453 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12 units permitted in Holmes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Holmes County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.8% in Bonifay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KE4DXT5SBXSFRR
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29