14392 County Road 6790

South Fork, MO 65777

$115,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $146/mo
• Annual: $1,748/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (3.8% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#955 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Plains R-VII (rural): math 36% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #152 of 324 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Fork Elem. (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 159 students, 53% FRL); West Plains Sr. High (math 27% / reading 65%, grade D-, #170 of 521 statewide, top 33%, 1,162 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.