14392 County Road 6790 · South Fork, MO 65777

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Other · 19 Days on market

Built 1999 6.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 7 scenic acres, offering the perfect mix of comfort and space. Featuring all-new plank flooring throughout, a spacious kitchen and dining area, and a huge pantry, this home is designed for convenience. Stay comfortable year-round with central heat and air. The large yard provides plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment, while the additional acreage offers room to roam. A small pond adds to the peaceful country setting. Located in a quiet rural area yet within a short drive to West Plains, this property is ideal for those seeking tranquility without sacrificing convenience. Don't miss this opportunity for a move-in-ready home in the he

Key facts

• Huge pantry
• Central heat and air
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• ALL-NEW PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• HUGE PANTRY
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• LARGE YARD
• SMALL POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#955 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Plains R-VII (rural): math 36% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #152 of 324 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Fork Elem. (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 159 students, 53% FRL); West Plains Sr. High (math 27% / reading 65%, grade D-, #170 of 521 statewide, top 33%, 1,162 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,620 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $23,107
• Equity at exit: $51,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $69,242
• Equity at exit: $79,690

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65777

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $260/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $178	+0% $146	+5% $113	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $102	+0% $146	+5% $189	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $175	base $146	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-06-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-06
   price $115,000
3. 2025-05-28
   status Active
4. 2025-03-24
   status Pending
5. 2025-03-17
   listed $105,000 Active
6. 2009-10-16
   soldstatus
7. 1998-11-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $260 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$855/yr (+$71/mo · 328.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$260
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Plains R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2931680
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,206
• Composite: 33.59/100
• National rank: #5419
• State rank: #152 of 324 in MO

Livability — South Fork

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #955
• US rank: #26479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 135

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.83)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 59% White 41%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 14%
• Foreign-born: 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+9.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-10 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $115,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-28 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-03-24 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-03-17 Listed $105,000 SOMO
• 2009-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $260 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.