4450 Thieme Gulf Rd

Hamilton College, NY 13476

$199,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Built 1790 · SingleFamily · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-494/mo
• Annual: $-5,927/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.59%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (43.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (37.0% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Westmoreland Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #173 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deforest A Hill Primary School (169 students, 0% FRL); Westmoreland Upper Elementary School (math 60% / reading 68%, grade B, #658 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 237 students, 0% FRL); Donald H Crane Junior/Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 414 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1790 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $155k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1790 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.