5203 Main #127 St

Lexington, MI 48450

$35,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $804/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$186
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $390/mo
• Annual: $4,677/yr
• Cap rate: 19.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.05%
• DSCR: 3.09
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $9,940

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $36k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $245 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#494 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 31 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 2.1% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Minor: kitchen countertops — Worn and dated appearance.
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures, but dated design.