5203 Main #127 St · Lexington, MI 48450

$35,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1966 Average condition ↓ 58% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you have ever wanted a place with access to the lake, without the big bills then this is the place for you! This home is just a short walk away from the beach. The seller will leave the appliances and furniture for you so all you have to do is show up! You are going to love the beach this summer! Must be approved by the park. All measurements are estimated and buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Built 1966
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Beach access; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes oven, refrigerator, and range
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Oven, Refrigerator, Range; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 2.1% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#494 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $245 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 31 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $34,435 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.05%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5203 Main St #207	0.00mi	2/1.0	689 (+15%)	0mo	$78,000	$113	75
7184 Ben Franklin Dr	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (+12%)	21mo	$85,000	$126	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $19,083
• Equity at exit: $5,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $48,631
• Equity at exit: $3,069

Cash invested: $9,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48450

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$186
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $311

Max offer price $35,500

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $414	-5% $402	+0% $390	+5% $377	+10% $365
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $358	+0% $390	+5% $422	+10% $453
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $399	base $390	+0.5pp $381	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,875
• Closing costs: $1,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,500 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $35,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $39,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    If you have ever wanted a place with access to the lake, without the big bills then this is the place for you! This home is just a short walk away from the beach. The seller will leave the appliances and furniture for you so all you have to do is show up! You are going to love the beach this summer! Must be approved by the park. All measurements are estimated and buyer to verify all information.

17. 2026-05-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    If you have ever wanted a place with access to the lake, without the big bills then this is the place for you! This home is just a short walk away from the beach. The seller will leave the appliances and furniture for you so all you have to do is show up! You are going to love the beach this summer! Must be approved by the park. All measurements are estimated and buyer to verify all information.

18. 2026-05-06
    listed $39,900 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    If you have ever wanted a place with access to the lake, without the big bills then this is the place for you! This home is just a short walk away from the beach. The seller will leave the appliances and furniture for you so all you have to do is show up! You are going to love the beach this summer! Must be approved by the park. All measurements are estimated and buyer to verify all information.

19. 2026-04-24
    status Active
20. 2026-04-24
    status Active
21. 2026-04-10
    status Pending
22. 2026-04-10
    status Pending
23. 2026-02-25
    price $39,900
24. 2026-02-24
    price $39,900
25. 2026-01-24
    listed $49,900 Active
26. 2026-01-24
    listed $49,900 Active
27. 2026-01-24
    historical
28. 2026-01-24
    listed $59,900 Active
29. 2026-01-24
    listed $59,900 Active
30. 2025-11-03
    historical
31. 2025-09-09
    historical
32. 2025-09-09
    historical
33. 2025-09-04
    listed $109,000 Active
34. 2025-09-04
    listed $109,000 Active
35. 2025-08-14
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed
36. 2025-08-14
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed
37. 2025-07-25
    listed $54,000 Active
38. 2025-07-25
    listed $54,000 Active
39. 2025-07-20
    status Pending
40. 2025-07-20
    status Pending
41. 2025-07-09
    listed $59,900 Active
42. 2025-07-09
    listed $59,900 Active
43. 2025-06-24
    soldstatus $27,500 Closed
44. 2025-06-24
    soldstatus $27,500 Closed
45. 2025-05-12
    status Pending
46. 2025-05-12
    status Pending
47. 2025-05-03
    listed $38,900 Active
48. 2025-05-03
    listed $38,900 Active
49. 2024-12-31
    historical
50. 2024-11-20
    price $32,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,989
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − Depreciation: −$1,033
• Taxable income: $4,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $3,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home offers a good starting point with a good roof and foundation, but requires cosmetic updates to kitchen and bathroom to boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Minor kitchen countertops — Worn and dated appearance.
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures, but dated design.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and carpet replacement — Fresh paint and new carpet would improve both resale and rental appeal.
• Both Modern kitchen cabinets and countertops — Fresh, modern cabinets and countertops would significantly boost both resale and rental value.
• Both Modern bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures would enhance both resale and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Worn and dated appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen countertops · Worn and dated appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Standard fixtures, but dated design.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and carpet replacement — Fresh paint and new carpet would improve both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Modern kitchen cabinets and countertops — Fresh, modern cabinets and countertops would significantly boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Modern bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures would enhance both resale and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Croswell-Lexington Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,784
• Composite: 32.49/100
• National rank: #5707
• State rank: #239 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #14509

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,413

Population outlook (Sanilac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,948 people
• By 2030: 35,772 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 30,996 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,280 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 17,471 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 10,572 · -72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sanilac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.43%
• Current HPI: 252.2563
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-58.0% since first listed

83 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-24 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-24 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-24 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-04 Listed $109,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $109,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-14 Sold (MLS) $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-14 Sold (MLS) $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $54,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $54,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-09 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-09 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-24 Sold (MLS) $27,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-24 Sold (MLS) $27,500 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-05-03 Listed $38,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-03 Listed $38,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $32,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-04 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $38,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-20 Listed $41,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-17 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-09-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $41,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) $101,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) $101,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) $101,500 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-23 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-21 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $110 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $83,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $83,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $83,500 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-06 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-06 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-31 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-03-26 Listed $48,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-22 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-03-09 Listed $48,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-12-14 Price Changed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-12-13 Price Changed $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-09 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-09 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-31 Price Changed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS