13175 158th St N

Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$650,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,667 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,322
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,182
• Net cashflow: $-284/mo
• Annual: $-3,404/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $600k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $563k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $563k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jupiter Farms Elementary School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #70 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 624 students, 21% FRL); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.