13175 158th St N · Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$650,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1985 1.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to this stunning log ranch in North Jupiter, set on a private 1.15-acre parcel. This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home features open living areas, a recently renovated kitchen and bathrooms, and a dramatic stone fireplace in the living room, with an additional fireplace in the primary suite. A solid detached structure provides endless possibilities for guest space, studio, storage, etc. The expansive south-facing porch is ideal for gathering and enjoying the natural surroundings. Outdoors, relax by the in-ground pool with a surrounding deck designed for entertaining. Conveniently located near beaches, dining, shopping, and major roadways. This property offers privacy, flexibility, and

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Detached structure
• South-facing porch

Tags

• PRIVATE PARCEL
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• DRAMATIC STONE FIREPLACE
• DETACHED STRUCTURE
• SOUTH-FACING PORCH
• IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: AR; Lot features: One to two acres
• Financial info: Pets allowed (conditional; restrictions or possible restrictions)
• HOA & community: Laundry facilities in community; Park in community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Stone and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Effective year built
• Construction: Stone and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Effective year built
• Exterior features: Balcony; Fence; Porch; Open patio; Patio; Pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Wall/window unit(s); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Blinds; Breakfast area; Eat-in kitchen; Family/Dining room; Fireplace; Split bedroom floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Atrium; Workshop; Bedroom on main level; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry tub; Water softener (owned); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $600k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $563k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $563k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jupiter Farms Elementary School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #70 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 624 students, 21% FRL); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $450k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $562,963 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-123,163
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-129,570
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33478

• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$1,052 /mo · $12,619/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,182
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,989

Max offer price $599,890

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-100	+0% $-284	+5% $-468	+10% $-652
Rent	-10% $-728	-5% $-506	+0% $-284	+5% $-61	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-118	base $-284	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12863 159th Ct N Jupiter, FL	5.0	3.0	2296	$6,000	$2.61	26d	1	0.33mi
12523 169th Ct N Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1908	$4,500	$2.36	26d	1	1.34mi
12709 144th Ct N Unit NA West Palm Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$5,000	$2.22	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $650,000
3. 2026-03-21
   price $695,000
4. 2026-02-25
   price $725,000
5. 2026-02-04
   price $745,000
6. 2026-01-06
   listed $790,000 Active
7. 2025-05-14
   historical
8. 2025-05-12
   listed $5,000 New
9. 2023-09-30
   historical
10. 2023-05-12
    listed $819,975 Active
11. 2023-04-30
    historical
12. 2023-04-12
    price $819,975
13. 2023-03-31
    listed $799,997 Active
14. 2022-11-08
    soldstatus $450,000
15. 2015-08-12
    soldstatus $320,000
16. 2015-08-07
    historical
17. 2015-08-07
    soldstatus $320,000 Closed
18. 2015-07-16
    status Pending
19. 2015-06-08
    price $329,000
20. 2015-02-14
    listed $339,000 Active
21. 2014-06-02
    historical
22. 2013-11-15
    listed $349,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,619 · $1,052/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,619 · $1,052/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$12,619
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,404
• − Management: −$5,404
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$14,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,466
• After-tax cash flow: $62/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter Farms

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #617
• US rank: #11894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jupiter Farms, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,205

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -306.11%
• Current HPI: 427.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+86.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $650,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $695,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $725,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $745,000 MARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $790,000 MARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $5,000 GAMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Listed $819,975 MARMLS
• 2023-04-30 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $819,975 MARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Listed $799,997 MARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-07 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2015-08-07 Sold (MLS) $320,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-07-16 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2015-06-08 Price Changed $329,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-02-14 Listed $339,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-06-02 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2013-11-15 Listed $349,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,619 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.