51 Rogers Lake Trl

Essex Village, CT 06371

$275,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$384
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $412/mo
• Annual: $4,946/yr
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#63 in CT, #4,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Regional School District 18 (rural): math 67% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #16 of 153 in CT (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.4% in Essex Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.