51 Rogers Lake Trl · Essex Village, CT 06371

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1956 0.37 ac lot Est $349k · 21% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake community, totally remodeled, new windows, roof, electric, bathroom, kitchen,, refinished hardwood fls., Freshly painted. Lg. Corner lot. No basement but, large attic for storage & storage shed. Walk to lake for swimming boating etc.

Key facts

• Freshly painted
• Updated kitchen
• Short walk to lake

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SHORT WALK TO LAKE
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Walk-to-water and water community access
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; HOA fee $189 per year; Association includes clubhouse, lake/beach access, and trash pickup

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Carport; Paved driveway; Total 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family home; Private paved driveway
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Shed; Corner lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; 40-gallon electric hot water tank
• Interior features: Cable available; Has attic with pull-down stairs; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.4% in Essex Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#63 in CT, #4,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Regional School District 18 (rural): math 67% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #16 of 153 in CT (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,128
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Rogers Lake Trl	0.00mi	3/1.0	936 (0%)	0mo	$350,000	$374	100
58 Shore Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	964 (+3%)	12mo	$295,000	$306	60
25 Osceola Trl	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+8%)	23mo	$640,000	$635	58
203 Boston Post Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	888 (-5%)	9mo	$267,500	$301	55
21 Boughton Rd	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	872 (-7%)	4mo	$305,000	$350	53
6 Ledge Trl	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+12%)	13mo	$391,500	$373	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-18,301
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $17,900
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06371

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,238/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,332

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $275,000 Under Contract 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $275,000 Active
5. 2012-02-02
   historical
6. 2011-08-16
   listed $192,000
7. 2007-08-23
   soldstatus $235,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Lake community, totally remodeled, new windows, roof, electric, bathroom, kitchen,, refinished hardwood fls., Freshly painted. Lg. Corner lot. No basement but, large attic for storage & storage shed. Walk to lake for swimming boating etc.

8. 2007-08-15
   soldstatus $235,000
9. 2007-05-22
   listed $239,900 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Lake community, totally remodeled, new windows, roof, electric, bathroom, kitchen,, refinished hardwood fls., Freshly painted. Lg. Corner lot. No basement but, large attic for storage & storage shed. Walk to lake for swimming boating etc.

10. 2007-01-26
    historical
11. 2006-08-24
    listed $267,500
12. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,238 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,562 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,324/yr (+$110/mo · 40.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,238
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,740
• − Management: −$2,740
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$134
• After-tax cash flow: $4,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 18
• NCES district ID: 0903540
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $87,776
• Composite: 64.19/100
• National rank: #566
• State rank: #16 of 153 in CT

Livability — Essex Village

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #4113

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,285
• Population (ZIP): 9,855

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.61%
• Current HPI: 238.5046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+48.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $275,000 Smart MLS
• 2012-02-02 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2011-08-16 Listed $192,000 Smart MLS
• 2007-08-23 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Smart MLS
• 2007-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-22 Listed $239,900 Smart MLS
• 2007-01-26 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2006-08-24 Listed $267,500 Smart MLS
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,238 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.