1001 Drexel Dr

St. Peters, MO 63303

$279,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$364
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-453/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (18.9% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $227k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Castlio Elem. (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #98 of 1,115 statewide, top 10%, 818 students, 12% FRL); Francis Howell North High (math 40% / reading 55%, grade D, #154 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,679 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 30% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $223k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in St. Peters — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.