21 Lily Pond Dr

Noyack, NY 11963

$5,495,000D-

8 bd · 6.5 ba · 4,050 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $29,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax + insurance: −$9,158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,194
• Net cashflow: $-14,675/mo
• Annual: $-176,094/yr
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.45%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $1,538,600

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $5.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-176k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.37M (38.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.95M (46.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.95M (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $543k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $505k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $728k; list at $5.50M implies a 655% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$871k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $29,494/mo this rent would consume 277% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.