21 Lily Pond Dr · Noyack, NY 11963

$5,495,000

8 bd · 6.5 ba · 4,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2024 0.49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern Hamptons Elegance with Pool, Gym | Sag Harbor Recently constructed by renowned builder Farrell, this beautifully designed Sag Harbor home offers the perfect balance of luxury, comfort, and convenience just moments from the village, nearby marinas, and the ocean beaches of Bridgehampton. Thoughtfully designed across three finished levels, the residence features 7 bedrooms and 6.5 exceptional baths with sophisticated, current finishes and beautifully curated design throughout. The first-floor primary suite is a private retreat complete with its own office and direct access to the backyard patio and pool area. Upstairs, four ensuite guest bedrooms share access to a private terrace, whil

Key facts

• Multiple patios
• Grilling station
• Outdoor shower

Tags

• HEATED GUNITE POOL
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• GRILLING STATION
• MULTIPLE PATIOS
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• INDOOR GYM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: In-ground saltwater pool; Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen with kitchen island; Quartz/Quartzite and stone counters; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Gas oven; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a main-level primary suite and additional first-floor bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Six full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace (1)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Central vacuum; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master suite on main level; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Soaking tub; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Finished full basement with walk-out access; Dormer attic; 14 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $5.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-176k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.37M (38.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.95M (46.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.95M (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $29,494/mo this rent would consume 277% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $543k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $505k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$871k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $728k; list at $5.50M implies a 655% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,949,393 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.45%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $1,911,210
• Equity at exit: $4,627,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $6,684,268
• Equity at exit: $9,655,562

Cash invested: $1,538,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6,869 /mo · $82,425/yr
• Insurance: −$2,290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,194
• Net cashflow: $-14,675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $48,069

Max offer price $3,371,576

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10,877	-5% $-12,776	+0% $-14,675	+5% $-16,573	+10% $-18,472
Rent	-10% $-17,005	-5% $-15,840	+0% $-14,675	+5% $-13,509	+10% $-12,344
Rate	-1.0pp $-11,907	-0.5pp $-13,277	base $-14,675	+0.5pp $-16,098	+1.0pp $-17,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,373,750
• Closing costs: $164,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-25
    listed $5,495,000 Active
15. 2023-09-18
    soldstatus $728,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $353,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$307,805
• − Property taxes: −$82,425
• − Insurance: −$27,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,314
• − Management: −$28,314
• − Depreciation: −$159,855
• Taxable loss: −$280,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$67,263
• After-tax cash flow: $-108,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+654.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $5,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $728,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,740 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.