4011 Three Forks Rd

Kaufman, TX 75142

$3,600D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,492 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19
• Tax + insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $2,187/mo
• Annual: $26,245/yr
• Cap rate: 735.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 2603.72%
• DSCR: 116.85
• 1% rule: 77.78%
• Cash to close: $1,008

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $4k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $25 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $108 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#478 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Kaufman ISD (town): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #437 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Monday El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 469 students, 69% FRL); Norman J H (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 989 students, 70% FRL); Kaufman H S (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,303 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 735.3% vs local median 4.1% in Kaufman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.