4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,000 sqft ·
Built 1969
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,716/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$171
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$360
Net cashflow
$4/mo
Annual
$54/yr
Cap rate
6.32%
Cash-on-cash
0.09%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($54/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (23.7% below list).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Vaughn Road Elementary School (math 3% / reading 25%, grade F, #530 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 494 students, 78% FRL); Brewbaker Middle School (math 0% / reading 19%, grade F, #227 of 257 statewide, top 90%, 838 students, 91% FRL); Jefferson Davis High School (math 3% / reading 16%, grade F, #258 of 305 statewide, top 85%, 1,522 students, 83% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $149k; list at $225k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KGNJ376Y62NVCJ
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29