6151 Shamrock Cir

Frederick, CO 80530

$439,999F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $8/mo
• Annual: $102/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($102/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (19.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $354k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thunder Valley Pk-8 (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #781 of 966 statewide, top 82%, 832 students, 57% FRL); Coal Ridge Middle School (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 800 students, 32% FRL); Frederick Senior High School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #196 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,412 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $440k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.