6151 Shamrock Cir · Frederick, CO 80530

$439,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2002 4,628 sqft lot Est $346k · 27% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you've been waiting for a 4-bedroom home in Savannah at this price point, this is the one to pay attention to. It's been over a year since a home with this many bedrooms and SQFT has hit the market under $450,000! Not to mention it has refreshed exterior paint and brand new carpet. From the moment you walk in, you feel the difference. The oversized living room is filled with natural light from the west-facing front of the home, creating a bright and inviting space throughout the day. The layout flows seamlessly into a spacious kitchen featuring extended counter space, abundant cabinetry, and a large center island - giving you the room and functionality most homes in this price range simply don't offer. Just off the kitchen, you'll find a generous flex space that adapts to your lifestyle. Whether you need a dining area, second living room, home office, or play space, this layout gives you options. Step outside to the concrete patio and enjoy summer evenings in the east-facing backyard, where the shade from the setting sun keeps the space cooler and more comfortable. The four-bedroom layout gives you a level of versatility that's hard to find in this community - whether it's space for guests, a home office, or room to grow. The primary suite adds everyday convenience with its own ensuite bath. Practical upgrades are already handled for you. The roof is only about three years old, and the home also features newer LVP flooring, a new hot water heater, and a new garage door with motor. An attached one-car garage adds to the home's functionality and ease of living. If you've been waiting for a home in Savannah that offers more space, more flexibility, and better value - this is it. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Abundant cabinetry
• Brand new carpet

Tags

• REFRESHED EXTERIOR PAINT
• BRAND NEW CARPET
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• EXTENDED COUNTER SPACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Savannah Master Association; Professionally managed; Quarterly association fee of $90 ($360 annually)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; 1 parking space total
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Unattached property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (1 full, 1 three-quarter, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Dryer; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; In-unit laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($102/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thunder Valley Pk-8 (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #781 of 966 statewide, top 82%, 832 students, 57% FRL); Coal Ridge Middle School (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 800 students, 32% FRL); Frederick Senior High School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #196 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,412 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $440k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,383 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,686
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7971 Larkspur Cir #219	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (+0%)	3mo	$294,000	$177	82
6118 Shamrock Cir	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,514 (-8%)	4mo	$434,000	$287	69
6125 Bluestem Grn	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-8%)	4mo	$289,000	$189	67
6271 Red Cedar St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (-11%)	4mo	$294,932	$199	65
7840 Cattail Grn	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-6%)	9mo	$312,500	$200	64
6160 Mallow Grn #272	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-8%)	3mo	$271,500	$179	64
6120 Laural Grn #258	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+10%)	4mo	$315,000	$173	61
6311 Indian Paintbrush St #110	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-13%)	3mo	$305,000	$211	60
6311 Indian Paintbrush St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-13%)	3mo	$305,000	$211	60
6320 Indian Paintbrush St #108	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-15%)	7mo	$295,000	$209	54
1120 Maclean Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,475 (-11%)	5mo	$415,000	$281	42
511 Sundance Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (+11%)	1mo	$445,000	$242	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-70,857
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-61,410
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80530

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,245/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,533

Max offer price $439,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $133	+0% $8	+5% $-116	+10% $-241
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-131	+0% $8	+5% $148	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $120	base $8	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7307 Aspen Brook Ave Frederick, CO	4.0	3.0	2200	$3,200	$1.45	14d	1	1.01mi
1126 Huntington Ave Dacono, CO	3.0	2.5	2013	$2,919	$1.45	14d	1	1.15mi
7333 Crystal Ave Frederick, CO	5.0	2.5	2030	$3,065	$1.51	14d	1	1.15mi
7340 Crystal Ave Frederick, CO	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,964	$1.54	22d	1	1.17mi
7405 Crystal Ave Frederick, CO	5.0	2.5	2030	$3,065	$1.51	24d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $439,999 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,999 Coming Soon 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1755 chars)

   If you've been waiting for a 4-bedroom home in Savannah at this price point, this is the one to pay attention to. It's been over a year since a home with this many bedrooms and SQFT has hit the market under $450,000! Not to mention it has refreshed exterior paint and brand new carpet. From the moment you walk in, you feel the difference. The oversized living room is filled with natural light from the west-facing front of the home, creating a bright and inviting space throughout the day. The layout flows seamlessly into a spacious kitchen featuring extended counter space, abundant cabinetry, and a large center island - giving you the room and functionality most homes in this price range simply don't offer. Just off the kitchen, you'll find a generous flex space that adapts to your lifestyle. Whether you need a dining area, second living room, home office, or play space, this layout gives you options. Step outside to the concrete patio and enjoy summer evenings in the east-facing backyard, where the shade from the setting sun keeps the space cooler and more comfortable. The four-bedroom layout gives you a level of versatility that's hard to find in this community - whether it's space for guests, a home office, or room to grow. The primary suite adds everyday convenience with its own ensuite bath. Practical upgrades are already handled for you. The roof is only about three years old, and the home also features newer LVP flooring, a new hot water heater, and a new garage door with motor. An attached one-car garage adds to the home's functionality and ease of living. If you've been waiting for a home in Savannah that offers more space, more flexibility, and better value - this is it. Schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-06-15
   listed $439,999 Coming Soon 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1755 chars)

   If you've been waiting for a 4-bedroom home in Savannah at this price point, this is the one to pay attention to. It's been over a year since a home with this many bedrooms and SQFT has hit the market under $450,000! Not to mention it has refreshed exterior paint and brand new carpet. From the moment you walk in, you feel the difference. The oversized living room is filled with natural light from the west-facing front of the home, creating a bright and inviting space throughout the day. The layout flows seamlessly into a spacious kitchen featuring extended counter space, abundant cabinetry, and a large center island - giving you the room and functionality most homes in this price range simply don't offer. Just off the kitchen, you'll find a generous flex space that adapts to your lifestyle. Whether you need a dining area, second living room, home office, or play space, this layout gives you options. Step outside to the concrete patio and enjoy summer evenings in the east-facing backyard, where the shade from the setting sun keeps the space cooler and more comfortable. The four-bedroom layout gives you a level of versatility that's hard to find in this community - whether it's space for guests, a home office, or room to grow. The primary suite adds everyday convenience with its own ensuite bath. Practical upgrades are already handled for you. The roof is only about three years old, and the home also features newer LVP flooring, a new hot water heater, and a new garage door with motor. An attached one-car garage adds to the home's functionality and ease of living. If you've been waiting for a home in Savannah that offers more space, more flexibility, and better value - this is it. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$3,245
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,402
• − Management: −$3,402
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$7,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,807
• After-tax cash flow: $1,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J
• NCES district ID: 0805370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,571
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #4353
• State rank: #23 of 86 in CO

Livability — Frederick

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #14276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frederick, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 6,242
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 6,242
• Household income: $124,000
• Rent vs Own: 8.4% rent · 91.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 36.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.71%
• Current HPI: 353.3026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+137.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $439,999 IRES
• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $439,999 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2026-03-25 Listed $439,999 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $439,999 IRES
• 2011-04-01 Sold (MLS) $121,509 IRES
• 2011-02-16 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2011-01-28 Price Changed $121,500 IRES
• 2011-01-27 Listed $135,000 IRES
• 2011-01-25 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-28 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-09 Sold (MLS) $189,000 IRES
• 2003-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-28 Listed $185,000 IRES

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,245 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.