6404 Saint Thomas Ct

Louisville, KY 40218

$152,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,526 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $444/mo
• Annual: $5,325/yr
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.44%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $42,812

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Watterson Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #630 of 676 statewide, top 95%, 494 students, 70% FRL); Ramsey Middle (math 11% / reading 34%, grade F, #200 of 217 statewide, top 93%, 1,008 students, 62% FRL); Seneca High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #228 of 254 statewide, top 91%, 1,309 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.