6404 Saint Thomas Ct · Louisville, KY 40218

$152,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,526 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.44%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,062
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4105 Pomeroy Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,469 (-2%)	1mo	$340,000	$138	79
2827 Pomeroy Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,330 (-8%)	3mo	$280,000	$120	74
4012 Graf Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,720 (+8%)	0mo	$330,000	$121	65
2909 White Plains Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,307 (-9%)	6mo	$330,000	$143	64
2859 Sheldon Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,308 (-9%)	3mo	$345,000	$149	64
4215 Buxton Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,161 (-14%)	3mo	$300,000	$139	62
2818 Tyson Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,356 (-7%)	4mo	$245,000	$104	61
3111 Roypom Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,780 (+10%)	7mo	$321,000	$115	51
4420 Woodgate Ln	0.62mi	3/3.0	2,353 (-7%)	7mo	$323,000	$137	50
3815 Mamaroneck Rd	0.61mi	3/3.0	2,360 (-7%)	8mo	$325,000	$138	50
3102 Arjay Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,186 (-14%)	3mo	$286,000	$131	45
4109 Landside Dr	0.71mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,343 (-7%)	2mo	$312,500	$133	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,273
• Equity at exit: $22,798

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,178
• Equity at exit: $13,220

Cash invested: $42,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40218

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $152,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $530	-5% $487	+0% $444	+5% $400	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $365	+0% $444	+5% $522	+10% $601
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $483	base $444	+0.5pp $404	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,225
• Closing costs: $4,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4012 White Plains Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	2000	$2,200	$1.10	12d	1	0.27mi
7105 Nachand Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,000	$1.01	17d	1	0.69mi
3931 Manner Dale Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	2090	$2,150	$1.03	17d	1	0.72mi
3725 Greenwich Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2495	$2,650	$1.06	24d	1	0.74mi
3100 Beargrass Run Ct #110 Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2266	$1,900	$0.84	24d	1	1.10mi
3701 Hunsinger Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1777	$2,200	$1.24	4d	1	1.16mi
3552 Lisbon Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1964	$1,895	$0.96	24d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2024-12-26
   soldstatus $250,000
2. 2023-11-13
   status Pending
3. 2020-03-20
   soldstatus $152,900
4. 2020-02-10
   status Pending
5. 2019-09-11
   price $152,900
6. 2019-09-11
   listed $159,900 Active
7. 2019-05-26
   historical
8. 2019-04-30
   status Active
9. 2019-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2019-04-14
    status Active
11. 2019-03-04
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2019-02-21
    status Active
13. 2019-02-18
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2019-02-09
    price $158,000
15. 2018-11-26
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,150 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,150 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,565
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$4,448
• Taxable income: $3,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$751
• After-tax cash flow: $4,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,736
• Household income: $58,811
• Rent vs Own: 50.5% rent · 49.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1590.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, India, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.23%
• Current HPI: 257.9528
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.47%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+51.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-13 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $152,900 Public Records
• 2020-02-10 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-09-11 Listed $159,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-09-11 Price Changed $152,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-05-26 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-04-30 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-04-18 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-04-14 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-03-04 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-02-21 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-02-18 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-02-09 Price Changed $158,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-11-26 Listed $165,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,150 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.