7784 Irish Hill Rd

West Valley, NY 14171

$199,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$488
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-687/mo
• Annual: $-8,240/yr
• Cap rate: 2.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.71%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (46.2% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#931 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.