7784 Irish Hill Rd · West Valley, NY 14171

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2008 1.70 ac lot $156/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With a perfect blend of tranquility and opportunity, this 3 bed 2 bath manufactured home is nestled on a well-sized 1.70-acre lot, just 10 minutes from the picturesque town of Ellicottville and the renowned Holiday Valley Resort! Bank will not accept any offers before/until February 4th. With 1248 square feet of potential, this home offers ample space to create the retreat of your dreams. The unique garage/basement combo provides both storage and the potential for a workshop, etc. With an exterior walkout garage door it offers convenient access to your property. This property is a blank canvas awaiting your creative touch! While rehab is certainly needed, the opportunity to customize this lot to your personal taste is truly unbeatable. Whether you're seeking an investment property, a weekend getaway, or a vacation home, this residence is brimming with potential just waiting to be unleashed for someone willing to put in the work. Surrounded by serene woodlands and the peaceful sounds of nature, you’ll relish in the privacy this expansive lot provides once it looks and feels like home. Imagine bonfire nights under the stars or adventurous days skiing at Holiday Valley, all while being just moments away from charming shops and restaurants in Ellicottville… Let’s make it happen!

Key facts

• Modern appliances
• Renovated kitchen
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETRY
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPGRADED RECESSED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Underground garage access; Garage includes storage and workshop; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Entry level on main floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Spray foam insulation; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Resale condition; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot (approx. 1.7 acres, 250 x 300)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Propane water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Main level primary suite; Primary suite; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (46.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#931 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $97,206 (51.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.71%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,537
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -65.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $65,301
• Equity at exit: $180,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $226,916
• Equity at exit: $388,554

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14171

• Home prices YoY: 11.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,860/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $97,206

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-573	-5% $-630	+0% $-687	+5% $-743	+10% $-800
Rent	-10% $-772	-5% $-729	+0% $-687	+5% $-644	+10% $-602
Rate	-1.0pp $-586	-0.5pp $-636	base $-687	+0.5pp $-739	+1.0pp $-791

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $199,999 Active 1275-char remark
2. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-20
   historical
4. 2025-12-02
   price $199,900
5. 2025-11-10
   listed $224,900 Active
6. 2025-05-16
   soldstatus $70,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (1319 chars)

   With a perfect blend of tranquility and opportunity, this 3 bed 2 bath manufactured home is nestled on a well-sized 1.70-acre lot, just 10 minutes from the picturesque town of Ellicottville and the renowned Holiday Valley Resort! Bank will not accept any offers before/until February 4th. With 1248 square feet of potential, this home offers ample space to create the retreat of your dreams. The unique garage/basement combo provides both storage and the potential for a workshop, etc. With an exterior walkout garage door it offers convenient access to your property. This property is a blank canvas awaiting your creative touch! While rehab is certainly needed, the opportunity to customize this lot to your personal taste is truly unbeatable. Whether you're seeking an investment property, a weekend getaway, or a vacation home, this residence is brimming with potential just waiting to be unleashed for someone willing to put in the work. Surrounded by serene woodlands and the peaceful sounds of nature, you’ll relish in the privacy this expansive lot provides once it looks and feels like home. Imagine bonfire nights under the stars or adventurous days skiing at Holiday Valley, all while being just moments away from charming shops and restaurants in Ellicottville… Let’s make it happen!

7. 2025-02-10
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1319 chars)

   With a perfect blend of tranquility and opportunity, this 3 bed 2 bath manufactured home is nestled on a well-sized 1.70-acre lot, just 10 minutes from the picturesque town of Ellicottville and the renowned Holiday Valley Resort! Bank will not accept any offers before/until February 4th. With 1248 square feet of potential, this home offers ample space to create the retreat of your dreams. The unique garage/basement combo provides both storage and the potential for a workshop, etc. With an exterior walkout garage door it offers convenient access to your property. This property is a blank canvas awaiting your creative touch! While rehab is certainly needed, the opportunity to customize this lot to your personal taste is truly unbeatable. Whether you're seeking an investment property, a weekend getaway, or a vacation home, this residence is brimming with potential just waiting to be unleashed for someone willing to put in the work. Surrounded by serene woodlands and the peaceful sounds of nature, you’ll relish in the privacy this expansive lot provides once it looks and feels like home. Imagine bonfire nights under the stars or adventurous days skiing at Holiday Valley, all while being just moments away from charming shops and restaurants in Ellicottville… Let’s make it happen!

8. 2025-01-21
   listed $48,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1319 chars)

   With a perfect blend of tranquility and opportunity, this 3 bed 2 bath manufactured home is nestled on a well-sized 1.70-acre lot, just 10 minutes from the picturesque town of Ellicottville and the renowned Holiday Valley Resort! Bank will not accept any offers before/until February 4th. With 1248 square feet of potential, this home offers ample space to create the retreat of your dreams. The unique garage/basement combo provides both storage and the potential for a workshop, etc. With an exterior walkout garage door it offers convenient access to your property. This property is a blank canvas awaiting your creative touch! While rehab is certainly needed, the opportunity to customize this lot to your personal taste is truly unbeatable. Whether you're seeking an investment property, a weekend getaway, or a vacation home, this residence is brimming with potential just waiting to be unleashed for someone willing to put in the work. Surrounded by serene woodlands and the peaceful sounds of nature, you’ll relish in the privacy this expansive lot provides once it looks and feels like home. Imagine bonfire nights under the stars or adventurous days skiing at Holiday Valley, all while being just moments away from charming shops and restaurants in Ellicottville… Let’s make it happen!

9. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
10. 2023-10-18
    status Pending Sale
11. 2023-10-06
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 2023-10-05
    historical
13. 2023-10-02
    price $69,900
14. 2023-09-29
    status Active
15. 2023-09-23
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
16. 2023-09-13
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,860 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,860 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,860
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$12,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,887
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #931
• US rank: #18117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,736

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Portuguese 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.60%
• Current HPI: 286.5591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,999 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $224,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-16 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $48,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-29 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2023-09-23 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2023-09-13 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,860 · +39.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.