8922 Witter Ln

Belton, TX 76502

$295,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$918
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-376/mo
• Annual: $-4,509/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (10.3% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#462 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.