3487 Mud Canyon Dr

Haines City, FL 33837

$389,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,451 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$650
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-626/mo
• Annual: $-7,515/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $109,197

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bella Citta (940 students, 35% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.