3487 Mud Canyon Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$389,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,451 sqft · Land · 19 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. The first floor of this two-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining with access to the patio. A secondary bedroom on the first floor can easily be converted to a guest room or home office. Upstairs is a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space, along with three secondary bedrooms and a luxe owner's suite comprised of an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Wynnstone is a lovely family friendly community of new single-family homes located in Davenport, FL. This amenity-rich community will include: Pool, Clubhouse, Gazebo, Playgrou

Key facts

• Secondary bedroom
• Luxe owner's suite
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Prime Community / Tristan Rafool); Monthly HOA $54; HOA includes pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund; Association approval required; Community amenities: pool, playground, dog park, trails, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Fiber optics available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion June 11, 2026); New construction; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Builder: Lennar Homes (Model: Eclipse); Builder license CBC1260831
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Paved, private lot; Trees and landscaped grounds; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-wall pest system; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bella Citta (940 students, 35% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $268,721 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-110,882
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-178,048
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,480

Max offer price $299,372

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3676 Rolling Ridge Bnd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	19d	1	0.19mi
3294 Partington Blvd Unit 3294 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,150	$1.29	3d	1	0.53mi
5423 Meadow Walk Dr Unit Na Davenport, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$3,150	$1.28	23d	1	0.58mi
2732 Gentle Rain Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,800	$1.32	23d	1	0.64mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 188 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1620	$2,000	$1.23	3d	1	0.73mi
687 Park Place Blvd Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,399	$0.98	23d	1	0.79mi
402 Sunset View Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1825	$2,365	$1.30	14d	1	0.95mi
605 Park Place Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,400	$1.47	23d	1	0.95mi
824 Horsetail Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	0.99mi
915 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1863	$2,400	$1.29	23d	1	1.03mi
1713 White Water Ct Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1932	$2,350	$1.22	23d	1	1.07mi
1449 Cumberland Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,550	$1.36	3d	1	1.10mi
635 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1863	$2,500	$1.34	3d	1	1.17mi
2043 Punch Bowl Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,250	$1.17	14d	1	1.19mi
456 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,500	$1.42	21d	1	1.21mi
211 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,150	$1.15	3d	1	1.28mi
171 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,300	$1.23	3d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $389,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,580
• − Management: −$2,580
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$14,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,492
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $389,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid