2615 Main St

Liverpool, TX 77577

$245,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-582/mo
• Annual: $-6,981/yr
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.18%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-582 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (42.6% below list).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.