2615 Main St · Liverpool, TX 77577

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 218 Days on market

Built 2022 $168/sqft · 18% below area Est $300k · 18% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home with handicapped accessible. Open design with contemporary design. Small town tight nit community. We have a park for kids to go and play Plus fishing to enjoy. This is a 4 bedroom 2 full baths home with wide hallways for wheelchair accessibility. Large pantry for plenty of storage. Each bedroom has a walk in closet. The master bedroom has a en suite for your convenience. It also has washer and dryer hookup central air and heat and plenty of space to enjoy outside. It also comes with two buildings a 14x24 building that has electricity hooked up to it could be made into a man cave or a she shed the other building is a 10x20 for your lawn equipment or tools. For more information please contact me at 979-645-3019 . $245,000 is asking price. It's all electric comes with dishwasher stove and refrigerator.

Key facts

• Open design
• En suite
• Wide hallways

Tags

• OPEN DESIGN
• WIDE HALLWAYS
• LARGE PANTRY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-582 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (42.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,683 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.18%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,950
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -18.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
431 Shady Oaks Hbr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+12%)	11mo	$309,900	$191	43
615 Shady Oaks Hbr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (-15%)	2mo	$170,000	$137	32
9903 County Road 171	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (+15%)	18mo	$369,500	$220	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,517
• Equity at exit: $110,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $25,236
• Equity at exit: $169,774

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77577

• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $160,821

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2025-11-10
    listed $245,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Beautiful home with handicapped accessible. Open design with contemporary design. Small town tight nit community. We have a park for kids to go and play Plus fishing to enjoy. This is a 4 bedroom 2 full baths home with wide hallways for wheelchair accessibility. Large pantry for plenty of storage. Each bedroom has a walk in closet. The master bedroom has a en suite for your convenience. It also has washer and dryer hookup central air and heat and plenty of space to enjoy outside. It also comes with two buildings a 14x24 building that has electricity hooked up to it could be made into a man cave or a she shed the other building is a 10x20 for your lawn equipment or tools. For more information please contact me at 979-645-3019 . $245,000 is asking price. It's all electric comes with dishwasher stove and refrigerator.

16. 2025-11-04
    historical
17. 2025-10-08
    price $245,000
18. 2025-09-21
    listed $254,000 Active
19. 2025-09-16
    historical
20. 2025-09-09
    price $248,000
21. 2025-08-19
    listed $255,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$11,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liverpool

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,288

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $245,000 Fizber.com
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $248,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $255,000 HARMLS