14162 SW 16th Pl

Dunnellon, FL 34431

$239,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 360 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,625/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Romeo Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 707 students, 76% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 694 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Dunnellon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.