14162 SW 16th Pl · Dunnellon, FL 34431

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · SingleFamily · 360 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 10,454 sqft lot $171/sqft · at area comps Est $251k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful new construction home! Newly Completed and Move-In-Ready! This is your opportunity to own a spacious home in the growing community of Rainbow Park located near the World Equestrian Center and everything Central Florida has to offer! You will love the Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring throughout all living and common areas with tile in the bathrooms and Zero Carpet. This popular model features an Open floor plan with a large kitchen island area, three bedrooms, and two baths. .. all done in neutral, pleasing colors. Complete with Inside laundry and a Walk-in closet in the Master bedroom. Stainless steel appliance package in the kitchen. This home will have shaker-style cabinets and luxury granite countertops and comes with a Builder Warranty! Don’t Miss out! Ask about Closing Cost assistance with our preferred lender! Any photos depicted are for illustration purposes only and only to show layout. Some photos have been virtually staged. Floor plan displayed is our standard plan and garage orientation may vary on actual home. Interior and exterior colors, and finishes may vary for actual home. Information is deemed correct, but no guarantee is made. The home is under construction. Expected completion date is an estimate only. Any dimensions listed are approximate.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Dunnellon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Romeo Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 707 students, 76% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 694 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,617 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,970
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -4.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19035 NW 18th Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-3%)	35mo	$274,900	$202	63
19790 SE 77th Pl	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	20mo	$160,000	$128	31
20030 NW 27th St	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	18mo	$291,000	$239	28
7271 SE 196th Ave	1.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	16mo	$60,000	$48	26
7391 SE 200 Ave	1.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+17%)	14mo	$425,000	$259	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-58,090
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-75,256
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $925,000 ($543/sqft)
• Median days on market: 351 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -67.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $196,183

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-219	+0% $-302	+5% $-385	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-438	-5% $-370	+0% $-302	+5% $-234	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-181	-0.5pp $-241	base $-302	+0.5pp $-364	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,900 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $239,900 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $239,900 Active 348 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $239,900 Active 346 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 344 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 343 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 342 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 337 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 336 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 335 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 334 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $239,900 Active 333 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,900 Active 332 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 331 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 330 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 329 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 328 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 327 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 326 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 325 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 324 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 323 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 322 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 321 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 320 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 319 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 318 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 317 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $239,900 Active 315 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 313 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 312 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 309 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,900 Active 308 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 307 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 306 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 304 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 303 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 301 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 300 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 299 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 298 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 294 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 293 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$7,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,900
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready new construction home offers a spacious floor plan with neutral colors and modern finishes. It is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Romeo Elementary School D- FL #1,234/2,144 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 Middle Dunnellon Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 365,905 people
• City population: 20,859
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid