20 Crooked Creek Way

Porterdale, GA 30016

$290,500D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,275 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,193/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,523
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,335/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $81,340

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (24.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $219k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 648 students, 85% FRL); Veterans Memorial Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #356 of 470 statewide, top 78%, 637 students, 85% FRL); Alcovy High School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 1,991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $290k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.